Oscar Predictions - January 3, 2016

Happy New Year kids! With most end of the year lists up and more award ceremony nominations, we are starting to get a clearer picture of what this year’s Oscar season will be like. We will get our biggest indicator once the Directors Guild and Producers Guild announce their nominations.

You can watch all the trailers by clicking on the titles of films.

BEST PICTURE:

Two films have been constantly appearing all season long, Spotlight and Mad Max: Fury Road. These are the two frontrunners right now and it will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next few weeks. Carol and The Revenant are good bets, as is The Big Short, which I think has too much star power and is too good to ignore. Speaking of power, can Star Wars: The Force Awakens make some noise? It’s going to be the highest grossing movie of all-time and has great reviews. I also think there will be an eventual surprise and that will be Straight Outta Compton. The Best Ensemble nomination at SAG showed it’s a player.

1- SPOTLIGHT

2 – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

3 – CAROL

4 – THE REVENANT

5 – THE BIG SHORT

6 – THE MARTIAN

7 – BRIDGE OF SPIES

8- ROOM

9 – STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

10 – STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON

BEST DIRECTOR

With Spotlight being the only movie consistently nominated all year, I think Tom McCarthy has to be the frontrunner. Inarritu could still take it, as The Revenant is a showcase for DiCaprio and the direction. Todd Haynes (Carol) will for sure be nominated, as the movie is absolutely stunning. We also have s0me old timers, George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) and Ridley Scott (The Martian), Academy favorites Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight) and Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), and new kids Adam McKay (The Big Short) and Lenny Abrahamson (Room) all fighting it out.

1- TOM MCCARTHY – SPOTLIGHT

2- George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

3- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant

4- Todd Haynes – Carol

5- Ridley Scott – The Martian

BEST ACTOR

This is DiCaprio’s to lose. Critics are praising him and he is being nominated for everything. Trumbo star Bryan Cranston is sure to join Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) as very probable nominees for the Oscar after all three joined DiCaprio in being nominated for Best Actor at SAG and the Globes. The fifth spot is up in the air with a slew of actors including Johnny Depp (Black Mass), Matt Damon (The Martian) and Will Smith (Concussion) fighting it out for that last spot.

1- LEONARDO DICAPRIO – THE REVENANT

2- Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs

3 – Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

4 – Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

5- Johnny Depp – Black Mass

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson (Room) has been as consistent as DiCaprio this season, getting every nomination possible. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) looks to be her stiffest competitor, as she’s shown up at every nomination with Larson. But, you can never count out Cate Blanchett (Carol), as she is the new Meryl Streep. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) will probably get it, but the film isn’t the hit I thought it would be. And then there could be room for veterans Lilt Tomlin (Grandma), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Hellen Mirren (Woman in Gold).

1- BRIE LARSON – ROOM

2 – Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

3 – Cate Blanchett – Carol

4- Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

5- Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Though Stallone wasn’t nominated by SAG, I am sticking with him at the top spot. His performance is one of the year’s best and I think it is one the Academy will embrace. There were three names that were consistent between SAG and the Globes, as Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) and Michael Shannon (99 Homes) all were nominated. I’m not convinced in Shannon yet, as the movie is extremely small and I feel his performance may go unnoticed by the Academy by a bigger name and bigger movie, like Christian Bale in The Big Short, who I think will be the representative from the stellar cast. And though neither were nominated for either SAG or Globe, one of the Spotlight boys will get in, and I think it will be Keaton. I am hoping SAG and Globe had trouble distinguishing what category they belong in and the Academy will nominate them in the right category.

1- SYLVESTER STALLONE – CREED

2- Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation

3 – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

4 – Michael Keaton – Spotlight

5 – Christian Bale – The Big Short

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This category got interesting. Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), the two former frontrunners, may end up going lead. But, Vikander might still get a nomination in this category for Ex-Machina, which she’s been getting a lot of love for. I am going to keep Mara in here, but she is no longer the frontrunner. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) is magnificent and is a threat to win. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) will be nominated, but that’s her prize. I don’t think Hellen Mirren will get in for Trumbo, but after being nominated by SAG and the Globes, it’s hard to bet against her. I think Jane Fonda (Youth) or Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) might make it about Mirren in the end.

1- ALICIA VIKANDER – EX-MACHINA

2 – Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

3 – Rooney Mara – Carol

4- Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

5- Hellen Mirren – Trumbo

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This will be a battle between The Hateful Eight and Spotlight and after seeing The Hateful Eight, I think this should go to Spotlight, as The Hateful Eight just doesn’t match-up to Tarantino’s past films. I also think they will show some love in the comedy area, with Inside Out and Amy Schumer’s Trainwreck getting nominations.

1 – SPOTLIGHT

2- The Hateful Eight

3- Inside Out

4- Bridge of Spies

5- Trainwreck

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is a tight category, but after the Globe nominations, I think this will be the Steve Jobs prize. As I’ve said, the screenplay is the best part of the film and Sorkin deserves credit. The Big Short has come on strong and Carol is staying consistent. Room could could be a sleeper pick, and I’m still trying to figure out how much people love The Martian, The Revenant, and Brooklyn.

1 – STEVE JOBS

2 – Carol

3 – The Big Short

4 – Room

5- The Martian