Oscar Predictions – Final Nomination Picks

The Academy will announce their nominations early on Thursday.  The Golden Globes and the recent nominations from the Producers Guild and Directors Guild has slightly cleared up the extremely foggy Oscar race that we have in front of us.  Here are my final predictions for the 2016 Oscar nominations.

I’m still only going to pick the same nine categories that I have been and skip over the techs for now.

You can watch all the trailers by clicking on the film title.

BEST PICTURE:

We have a big five, as the DGA cleared up that “Spotlight”, “Mad Max: Fury Road”, The Revenant”, “The Big Short”, and “The Martian” are the best of the bunch.  It will be interesting to see who else gets nominated after those five.  After SAG and PGA nominations, I am happy to report “Straight Outta Compton” looks like a sure thing, as does “Carol”.  The final couple spots will be decided by “Bridge of Spies”, “Room”, “Sicario”, “Brooklyn”, “Inside Out” and “Star Wars – The Force Awakens”.

1- SPOTLIGHT

2 – THE REVENANT

3 – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

4 – THE BIG SHORT

5 – THE MARTIAN 

6 – STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON

7 –  CAROL

8 – BRIDGE OF SPIES

9- ROOM

10- SICARIO

BEST DIRECTOR

I’m going with the DGA five, though I think Todd Haynes could sneak in for “Carol”, a la Bennett Miller last year for “Foxcatcher”.  Inarritu is the new frontrunner after his surprise Globe win.  I don’t think he’s going to end up winning, but I can’t decide who to pick instead of him, so he’ll be number one for now.

1 – ALEJANDRO GONZALEZ INARRITU – THE REVENANT 

2 – George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

3 – Ridley Scott – The Martian

4 – Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

5 – Adam McKay – The Big Short

 

BEST ACTOR

Not much to say here, as the DiCaprio train has left the station and will be chugging along until Oscar night, where he will surely win his much overdue Oscar.  Matt Damon’s Globe win for “The Martian” solidified that he is in, though Johnny Depp (“Black Mass”), Will Smith (“Concussion”), or Steve Carrell (“The Big Short”) could sneak in.

1- LEONARDO DICAPRIO – THE REVENANT 

2- Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs

3 – Matt Damon – The Martian

4 – Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

5 – Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

 

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson (“Room”) is coasting right now, and will probably end up winning.  Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”) is a sure fire nominee, as is Cate Blanchett for “Carol”.  The rest is up in the air, as I could see Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) getting a nomination here, though she’s being pushed supporting.  Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”) has the star-power to get in and she just won a Globe.  Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”) could slide in at the end too, and deservedly so.

1- BRIE LARSON – ROOM

2 – Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

3 – Cate Blanchett – Carol

4-Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

5- Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Stallone won the Globe with a standing ovation, but he missed the SAG nomination, which scares me.  But, no other actor in this category has stood out like Sly, so I think he’s in.  Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) is also going to get nominated.  The last two spots are tough, as you could argue ten actors for a nomination.  I still think a “Spotlight” boy will get in, and think that will be Keaton.  Then, there is usually a surprise and I think that will be Benicio Del Toro for “Sicario”, though Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Tom Hardy (“The Revenant”), and Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”) could all make the cut.

1- SYLVESTER STALLONE – CREED

2 – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

3 – Christian Bale – The Big Short

4 – Michael Keaton – Spotlight

5 – Benicio Del Toro – Sicario

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Depending where they campaign Rooney Mara (“Carol”) and Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) could change this category.  I think Vikander will get in regardless, if not for “The Danish Girl”, then for “Ex-Machina”.  Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”) seems like she’s headed for a nomination.  If none of the “Spotlight” boys get in, then I think McAdams will be nominated.  She has a SAG nomination to boot.  After her Globe win Sunday, Winslet has to be number one until the picture gets clearer.

1- KATE WINSLET – STEVE JOBS

2 – Alicia Vikander – Ex-Machina

3 – Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

4 – Rooney Mara – Carol

5- Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Spotlight” is the frontrunner, but “Inside Out” and “Bridge of Spies” are hot on its trail.  Tarantino hasn’t had a screenplay nominated without a Best Picture nomination, and I don’t think the Academy will embrace “The Hateful Eight”, so he’s out.  And after picking Writers Guild nominations, I think we could see “Straight Outta Compton” and “Trainwreck” in the final five.

1 – SPOTLIGHT

2- Inside Out

3- Bridge of Spies

4 – Straight Outta Compton

5- Trainwreck

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A tough, tough category to call.  Sorkin will get in for “Steve Jobs” as will Goddard for “The Martian” and McKay for “The Big Short”.  “Room” is supposedly adapted perfectly, so I think it will ride the Brie Larson coat-tails and get in.  The last spot will be between “The Revenant”, “Carol”, and “Brooklyn”.

1 – STEVE JOBS

2 – The Big Short

3 – The Martian

4 – Room

5- Brooklyn

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Just give this to “Inside Out” and end it.  “Anomalisa” and “The Peanuts Movie” are solid bets, as is “Shaun the Sheep Movie”.  I’m hesitant of “The Good Dinosaur”, as it isn’t Pixar at its best, but it’s still Pixar.

1- INSIDE OUT 

2- Anomalisa

3- The Peanuts Movie

4- Shaun the Sheep

5- The Good Dinosaur

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