Oscar Predictions 2024: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The 2024 Academy Awards are here! Despite hardly ever agreeing with who wins at the Oscars and the constant controversy surrounding the nominees and the show in general, I always get excited about Oscar night. Like most years, some categories seemed locked up based on precursors and awards-season wins. This year feels more predictable than most, but there are still a few battles that I am excited to see and I’m sure there will be a surprise or two.

Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is poised for a big night, but just how big? I currently have it set to win eight awards, but could it win more? How many Best Picture nominees will win awards? And who will win Best Actress? All questions will be answered on March 10th, but for now, here are my predictions for who I think will win and who I think should win at the 2024 Academy Awards.

 

BEST PICTURE

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Oppenheimer has dominated this awards season, winning every precursor in its path and that winning streak will continue on Oscar night.

WILL WIN: Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Nolan has won every precursor for a film some are saying is the best of his career. It’s his time to shine.

WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

One of the toughest battles of the night is between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone for Best Actress. Both have won several precursors and they gave two of the biggest and best performances of the year. I’m leaning toward Gladstone due to her victory at SAG and how important and big her win would be for representation.

WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

SHOULD WIN: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

This was a battle all season between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, but with Murphy’s wins at BAFTA and SAG, he’s taken a commanding lead and will take home the Oscar for the titular role in the Best Picture winner.

WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Much like Best Picture and Best Director, the two supporting categories have been sewn up for a while. Randolph has seemingly won every award she’s been up for and given spectacular speeches each time. This is one of the easiest picks of the night.

WILL WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

SHOULD WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Similar to Randolph, Downey Jr. has won everything he’s been nominated for and has been as charming as ever on the campaign trail. I cannot wait to see his speech.

WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

While I would love to see Celine Song’s Past Lives win here, the Academy’s support of Justine Triet’s courtroom drama plus its win at BAFTA has me thinking Anatomy of a Fall will take this one.

WILL WIN: Anatomy of a Fall

SHOULD WIN: Past Lives

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Another tough category to predict. Will the Oppenheimer sweep carryover into Adapted Screenplay? Will Greta Gerwig win her first Oscar for the highest-grossing movie of the year? Will Cord Jefferson’s biting debut also bring him Oscar glory? A tough choice, but all would be worthy winners.

WILL WIN: American Fiction

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest

The Zone of Interest is nominated for Best Picture and Best Director, so it’s pretty much a shoo-in to win here.

WILL WIN: The Zone of Interest

SHOULD WIN: The Zone of Interest

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was my favorite animated movie of the year. The Boy and the Heron is another brilliant movie from Hayao Miyazaki. Either of these movies could win, but I’m going with Spider-Verse because of its wins at the Producers Guild and Annie Awards.

WILL WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

SHOULD WIN: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

While a tough watch, 20 Days in Mariupol is a timely and brilliant documentary.

WILL WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol

SHOULD WIN: The Eternal Memory

 

REST OF THE CATEGORIES

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

WILL WIN: Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST EDITING

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

WILL WIN: Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

WILL WIN: Poor Things

SHOULD WIN: Barbie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

WILL WIN: Barbie

SHOULD WIN: Barbie

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

WILL WIN: Maestro

SHOULD WIN: Maestro

BEST SOUND

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

WILL WIN: Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

WILL WIN: The Creator

SHOULD WIN: Godzilla Minus One

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

WILL WIN: Oppenheimer

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
“It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” Barbie

WILL WIN: “What Was I Made For?” Barbie

SHOULD WIN: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

WILL WIN: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

SHOULD WIN: Letter to a Pig

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

WILL WIN: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

SHOULD WIN: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

WILL WIN: The ABCs of Book Banning

SHOULD WIN: The Last Repair Shop

 

The 2024 Academy Awards air on Sunday, March 10th, at 7:00 PM EST.

 

 

 

 

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