2018 Oscar Predictions – POST NOMINATIONS

Posted on by Kevin Wozniak

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SAG and PGA have cleared some things up, but it’s still an incredibly open race, though a few have broken ahead of the field. Here are my updated Oscar picks as nomination looms upon us.

 

 

I’m only going to be predicting the major categories and skip all the techs.

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE

1 – THE SHAPE OF WATER (Guillermo Del Toro)

  • Most nominated film.  Won PGA.  Is beloved in all branches.  It’s missing the big SAG nomination, but it could push through.

2 – GET OUT (Jordan Peele)

  • Continues to be a force in all categories.  It has momentum to go all the way and very well could.

3 – LADY BIRD (Greta Gerwig)

  • Much like Get Out, Lady Bird has been a force all year.  I don’t think the movie is powerful enough to win, but it has love in all branches and isn’t far behind the other two.

4 – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Martin McDonagh)

  • Missed Best Director, which is huge.  Could still pull the win with preferential voting, but it’s an uphill climb.

5 – DUNKIRK (Christopher Nolan)

  • Nolan finally cracked the Academy and earned nominations here and for director.  Still has an outside chance to win, but it’ll be tough.

6 – PHANTOM THREAD (Paul Thomas Anderson)

  • A huge showing on nomination morning show this movie has some support.  What does it mean in the end?  Could it pull off the 11th hour win?  Anything is possible this year and Anderson is due to some Academy love.

7 – THE POST (Steven Spielberg)

  • Sadly won’t win anything, even though it deserves to.

8- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Luca Guadagnino)

  • Missed key acting nominations.  Adapted screenplay will be it’s win.

9 – DARKEST HOUR (Joe Wright)

  • Riding the coattails of Gary Oldman’s performance, this one was kind of a surprise.

 

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR 

1 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO for THE SHAPE OF WATER

2 – CHRISTOPHER NOLAN for DUNKIRK

3 – JORDAN PEELE for GET OUT

4- PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON for PHANTOM THREAD

5 – GRETA GERWIG – LADY BIRD

  • This seems to be a battle between Del Toro and Nolan, with Peele acting as spoiler.  The DGA will clear this up for us.

 

 

BEST ACTOR

1- GARY OLDMAN for DARKEST HOUR

2- TIMOTHEE CHALAMET for CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

3- DANIEL DAY-LEWIS for PHANTOM THREAD

4 – DANIEL KALUUYA for GET OUT

5 – DENZEL WASHINGTON for ROMAN J. ISRAEL ESQ.

  • Genuinely surprised Washington made the cut.  Franco missed due to his sexual misconduct allegations, but nobody saw Roman J. Israel Esq, so that nomination is surprising.  I wonder is Washington is becoming a de-facto nominee, like Meryl Streep, and can do almost anything and get nominated.  Anyway, this is Oldman’s award, with Daniel Day-Lewis playing spoiler.

 

 

BEST ACTRESS 

1- FRANCIS MCDORMAND for THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

2- SALLY HAWKINS for THE SHAPE OF WATER

3- SAOIRSE RONAN for LADY BIRD

4- MARGOT ROBBIE for I, TONYA

5- MERYL STREEP for THE POST

  • This is McDormand’s prize.  Ronan and Robbie could play spoiler, but it’ll be hard to stop the monstrous force that is McDormand.

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1 – SAM ROCKWELL for THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

2- WILLEM DAFOE for THE FLORIDA PROJECT

3 – CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER for ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD

4- RICHARD JENKINS for THE SHAPE OF WATER

5 – WOODY HARRELSON for THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

  • It’ll be Rockwell vs DaFoe.  Plummer’s nomination is a genuine surprise, but one that was definitely possible and maybe he could get a win.  I think Rockwell will take this in the end and it will be an award that is well-deserved.

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1- ALLISON JANNEY for I, TONYA

2 – LAURIE METCALF for LADYBIRD 

3- OCTAVIA SPENCER for THE SHAPE OF WATER

4- MARY J. BLIGE for MUDBOUND

5- LESLIE MANVILLE for THE PHANTOM THRED

  • It’s going to be Janney vs Metcalf until the end.  Manville’s surprise nomination was a pleasant one, but I don’t think has enough steam to get a win.  And congrats to Mary J. Blige for becoming the first person to be nominated for an acting award and Best Original Song.  The Mudbound love is big too, as it marks Netflix’s first Oscar nomination and brings streaming services into the big picture.

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

1– GET OUT

2– THE SHAPE OF WATER 

3– LADY BIRD

4 – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

5– THE BIG SICK

  • This is where Get Out could, and should, get rewarded, though Lady Bird and The Shape of Water are breathing right down it’s neck.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1- CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

2- THE DISASTER ARTIST

3- MOLLY’S GAME

4- MUDBOUND

5 – LOGAN

  • I would love Aaron Sorkin and Molly’s Game to win here, but it’ll be Call Me By Your Name.  Logan getting nominated is huge, as it is the first comic book movie to earn a screenplay nomination, which is legendary.

 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1 – COCO

2 – LOVING VINCENT

3 – THE BREADWINNER 

4 – THE BOSS BABY

5 – FERDINAND

  • Oscar.  Nominee.  Boss Baby.  Let that sink in for a little bit.

 

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